Friday, June 23, 2023

Propaganda?

Plenty of things are basically propaganda from both sides these days (Ukraine war), but the latest on the internets is Prigozhi essentially calling out the MOD. Now, this video, assuming the translation is correct, would actually seem to point to western narratives being true[1], especially those about the Russian elites fighting and squabbling among themselves. A wayward general (or equivalent) successful of a major battle is certainly something to worry about, I would think. Hell, I've thought it for the Ukrainian side as well. We'll see, I suppose. But one should note that many of his most recent words have, by all accounts, pointed to an actual fissure among Putin's circle. [2]

Edit: well that escalated then deescalated really fast. suppose the main theories are: This was a real fissure in Russia. Prigozhin was speaking to the hardline faction's views that Putin was not going hard enough in this war. This would not align with some things Prigozhin said, such as Russia hasn't scored major strikes vs Leopard tanks and has had much higher losses than claimed. That doesn't seem to line up with a stated objective of fight this war much harder and right now. (note that some also claim that he is just nuts)

Then there's the Prigozhin was paid or manipulated by Western spies and turned on his own country. The likes of Ritter claim that FSB even uncovered Ukrainian plans to sow chaos with some terrorism in Moscow (to coincide with his march to Moscow). This doesn't entirely explain away why Prigozhin would stop and why Putin would negotiate. Makes no sense whatsoever. Sure Prigozhin might have seen that his situation was hopeless, but once it happened, why would you stop?

Then some think that Putin planned this all (hard to believe. There are other ways to do this, and if you had complete control all the time, you would let it linger just a little bit, wouldn't you? No, this one does not seem likely to me. Could be that Putin wants it to seem this way and to have people think he's masterminding it all (and maybe even use it against his enemies), but we'll see. 

I'm thinking that the second choice above is the closest if I were to go by the bloodlust of the usual suspects who want war and war and war. Almost like they did calculate it, but maybe that's just their personalities coming through. Will note that some liberal lefties, like Jeet Heer claimed that crowds were cheering Wagner as they left. And yet those videos don't show many people (this reminds me of the right in America comparing literally any one of their protests to BLM or other ones what completely dwarf it. IOW A picture from the ground doesn't mean anything). So hard to make a call on that one (and taking into account that many people just want a civil war in Russia even though, unlike 1917, there are nukes involved, so how can you want that there or even here). 

[1] He also mentions that the Russian MOD lied about an increase in attacks leading up to the SMO. So in that case his words go against what neutral observers have said.

[2] Some have claimed this is 64D chess and it's being said to draw the Ukrainians into battle. I'd say that's highly unlikely, but if Putin is half the dictator the West claims he is, why hasn't he squashed this yet?

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